Wednesday, June 6, 2007

Do You Have Enough Money?!

With people living longer, marrying and having children later and not saving enough, facing retirement is a challenge. While there is growing awareness about the need to plan, less than 5% are prepared for retirement and fail to take into consideration inflation rates and rising medical costs.
In 1981, when Azman graduated, he got a job in KL which paid him RM1,800 a month. He bought an imported Mazda at RM17,000 and months later he put down money on a RM78,000 single-storey terrace house. Today, 25 years later, Azman's daughter has just finished university. Her starting pay is RM1,800, just like her father's two and a half decades ago. But unlike her father's time, imported cars cost over RM100,000 today. So Latifah has opted to buy a Proton for RM45,000 (more than double what her dad paid for his first car). While her father could afford to buy a house early in his career, Latifah can't. Houses in KL these days cost at least RM200,000, so she has to work for a few years first before she can own one. Compared to 25 years ago, the prices of goods, food, petrol and electricity have all gone up. Understandably, it's an uphill task for Latifah to save on her RM1,800 salary, since the purchasing power of her salary is much lower than her father's back in the 1980s.
It is a fact that wages have not moved in tandem with the rise of the cost of living and inflation. That trend is expected to continue. And if people do not start planning early for their retirement, they are going to find themselves in a spot after they turn 55. Today, three meals cost you RM20 but in 20 years time – with an inflation rate of 6% a year – you will need RM64 per day for the three meals, estimates financial consultant Hazel Ong Archibald of CIMB Wealth Advisors. The government puts inflation rate at 3.2% to 4.8% but Ong says in urban areas, that figure is about 6%. So while the RM500,000 in your EPF or bank account at retirement might look good on paper, she says, if you do not invest that money to make it grow at a rate higher than the inflation rate, 20 years later, it would be worth only RM145,053 in purchasing power!
While there is more awareness about retirement planning these days, particularly in the urban areas, in reality this does not often translate into preparedness. Why? “Because it is more pleasurable to spend than to save,” opines Ong. People understand – at head level – the need to plan and save, she says, but at heart level, emotions rule and instant gratification wins the battle. “I wanted to persuade a friend to save for the future but she kept saying she had no money but then later I saw she could sign up RM3,000 and RM5,000 for some slimming packages!”
Reality hits when people find that they cannot afford to retire because they had not seriously put aside the money early on in life. “Less than 5% are prepared for retirement,” estimates Life Insurance Association of Malaysia (LIAM) president Ng Lian Lau. He says those in their 20s think they are too young to think about retirement, while those in their 30s and 40s tend to believe they are doing enough because they have their EPF savings, and those who are 55 feel it is just too late for them. And the truth is at 55, most people cannot afford to retire. “People are living longer, life expectancy for women is 76 years. For men it's 72. With this kind of longevity, people have got more than 20 years after retirement. 60 would be a more ideal retirement age,” he says. People are marrying later too, points out Ong. Which means they are having children later in life. If a person has a kid at the age of 35 and retires at 55, the odds are that his child at 20 would probably still be at university or college and his education require financing. On average, the Malaysian household spent 5.7% on education last year. With the cost of education rising by 6% each year, this is expected to climb steadily. While parents might buy an education insurance plan for their children, Ong has found that 90% of the time the amount is insufficient. More often than not, parents are willing to give up “everything”, including their own retirement fund for the kids. Which leaves them in a vulnerable position in their old age, unless of course their children provide for them.
As for life insurance, only 40% of Malaysians are covered. Ng says this is a small number compared to 100% in Singapore, 80% in the United States and 400% in Japan (where one person has four policies on average). And even if one has a life policy as well as savings from the EPF, people should still worry about retirement. This is because without a new source of income, that money would run out. This is especially so if one runs into health problems which is common when people grow older. “Medical inflation is easily 15% each year. And this could really eat into the savings,” warns Prudential Assurance Malaysia Bhd CEO Tan Kar Hor. Tan likens the medical bill as a “hole” which if not plugged would leak away one's entire retirement and savings. “It's only a question of how the big the hole is,” he says. So parliamentary secretary to the Finance Ministry Datuk Seri Dr Hilmi Yahaya's announcement on Thursday that amendments to the Employees Provident Fund Act would allow contributors to withdraw money to buy insurance for critical illness for themselves and their family is welcome news. The amendment Bill was passed in Dewan Negara that same day.
So how much would one need for retirement? Experts say this depends on the individual and his lifestyle. And how much he is willing to reduce consumption – to eat out less often, buy fewer things, live in a smaller house, drive less, drive a smaller car and travel less. The rule of the thumb, says Ng, is managing on 60% of your last drawn pay. For Ong, it's 70% of one's current lifestyle. If a family in Kuala Lumpur with two kids and two cars needs RM5,000 today, at retirement, expenses should go down to RM3,500. Even based on this calculation, one would need RM747,000 if one were to live for 25 years after retirement, and RM806,200 for the next 30 years, factoring in the inflation and interest rates. Going by statistics revealed in EPF's 2005 annual report, about 90% of EPF contributors have less than RM100,000 in their accounts. So sole dependence on one's EPF savings as a safety net is not good enough.
Assuming that one can live on RM1,000 a month, to survive for 25 years, one would still need a substantial RM300,000 and for 35 years, RM420,000. Bank Negara's Counselling and Debt Management Agency (AKPK) CEO Mohamed Akwal Sultan reckons a person should not start purchasing big assets like property or a house late in life as the danger is that once they have retired they may not be able to meet the instalment payment on it. “When you are in your late 40s, you should be winding down and not committing to high expenses to buy big things,” he says. AKPK has dealt with a number of cases where retirees have had banks auction off their houses because they could not meet the monthly loan payment. There is also the problem of credit card temptation. Ng notes a worrying trend that more and more younger people are becoming bankrupt as they are spending “tomorrow's money”. Which basically means these people are not saving or building their retirement nest.
Ideally, Ong says, people should start saving from the time of conception; that way would be able to enjoy the magic of the compounding effect. Prudential's Tan says a noticeable trend is that while the younger generation is prepared to invest in new financial instruments, the older generation gravitates towards fixed deposits. “That is very risky because you would not be able to accumulate enough because the interest rates can't meet the inflationary rate and your money is getting smaller,” he says.
He believes given the current life span, it would do retirees good to be more aggressive in their investment. “In investing, you should not be looking at the date of retirement but rather the date of potential death which is probably still another 21 years away after retirement,” he says. He recommends that people only keep about six months of their monthly expenses in the savings and FDs and put the rest in investment products that generate more income than the inflation rate.
Ng believes a good private pension would help people in their retirement years. In developed countries, money put into savings for retirement is not taxable, neither is the profit from that investment. “When you retire, you can't take the money out in a lump sum either or you'd have to pay tax on it. This will force you to withdraw your money on a regular monthly basis for retirement because that's tax free,” he adds. Singapore has such a scheme, the voluntary Supplementary Retirement Scheme, which complements the Central Provident Fund (CPF). Such a scheme has not taken off in Malaysia for a number of reasons, says Ng. It would be a loss of revenue to the Government because people would not be paying taxes on money put aside for retirement. It would benefit only the rich and middle income group as the poor might not be able to afford it, he adds. “Perhaps it hasn't taken off too because the Malaysian economy is pretty dependent on consumer spending. And the Government wants you to spend,” he adds.
Ng says there should also be an asset liquidation law in the country. It is puzzling that there are all sorts of incentives for asset accumulation, he says, but none for liquidation. An example of asset liquidation would be to reverse mortgage your house to the bank in return for a guaranteed monthly income until you die. The asset would at the end of the day belong to the bank or insurance company. But in the meantime, the person has the right to continue to live in the house until death and get a monthly income too. “If they outlive the value of the house, the bank loses,” he says. As our population ages and life expectancy increases, more thought must be given by both individuals and the Government on how to develop a culture of planning and saving for one's retirement.

Tuesday, June 5, 2007

How to Make Money From Investing in the Malaysian Stock Market?

CFA Malaysia (written bv Teoh Kok Lin, CFA, Founder and Managing Director of Singular Asset Management)

“You cannot make money investing in Malaysia’s stock market!” – This seems to be the perception of many Malaysians. There are many who believe that Malaysia’s stock market is speculative and that it is for speculators only; in order to make money from the stock market, you have to speculate, to adopt a “hit, take profit and run” strategy.

How does this perception arise? The truth is, some Malaysian investors, like investors in many countries, generally love to speculate. If I may refresh your memory, during the peak of the internet stock boom in the year 2000, there were thousands of full time day-traders in the US trading (or perhaps more correctly-speculating) in NASDAQ stocks. Not surprisingly, many of these day-traders eventually end up in tears with empty bank accounts. Does this make the US stock market a lesser place for investing? Certainly not!

Speculation. It is simply human nature that investors love stocks that promise huge investment returns, and hopefully it comes through in the shortest possible time. This natural bias perhaps has influenced the mindset of some Malaysian investors (and non- investors alike) to form the perception that the Malaysian stock market is speculative, risky and for speculators only.

Some speculation by a minority group of people certainly does not mean that one cannot make money investing in Malaysian stocks. By investing, we mean investors should base their decision to buy or sell shares on the fundamentals and valuation of these shares.

A great example is Warren Buffet, the second richest man (and the greatest investor!) in the world with an estimated US$ 36 billion in personal wealth that was accumulated from “value” investing based principally on his great ability to assess the fundamentals and valuation of stocks.

Equity investment historically and globally has been the best asset class for investing, the same applies to investing in Malaysia; ask around, you will find many investors who made excellent investment returns over the past five to ten years, investing in stocks such as IOI Corporation, Public Bank, Digi, Maybank, UMW, etc. An RM1,000 investment in IOI Corporation in 1990 is now worth approximately RM25,024, this is an investment return in excess of 22% per annum!
You may argue that perhaps one can only make money from these large market capitalization “blue chip” companies, and there are very few of these companies listed on Bursa Malaysia. In fact, the lack of large market capitalization stocks is one of the key complaints of foreign fund managers. These foreign investors, given the enormous size of their funds, generally prefer to invest in companies with big market capitalization that usually trade actively in the stock market.

However, for individual investors who are less constrained by the size of the companies, there are even more choices. In fact, our research tells us that many smaller sized companies have performed much, much better. Those who invested early in smaller companies such as Lion Diversified Industries, Top Glove, Pos Holdings and Kossan Rubber are certainly very happy with the large gains that they have made (3 years cumulative returns ranging from 230 % to 478 %!).

Over the past few months, we have met quite a number of investors who have been successful in multiplying their wealth through investing in Malaysia’s stock market. Here are just 3 things that they have in common. Firstly, these investors have been investing in the stock market for many years; there were some not so good years but over time they have generally done well investing in stocks. Secondly, they tend to invest based on fundamentals and avoid speculation. Thirdly, some of them actually say that it is not hard to find good investable stocks if you are willing to work at it. In fact, you may even find great investable stocks amongst MESDAQ companies.

MESDAQ companies such as Green Packet and Jobstreet, for example, have attracted serious foreign fund managers. Fidelity Investment, one of the largest US-based fund management companies, owns about 4.9% of Green Packet. Armor Capital Management owns about 5.9 % of Jobstreet. Share prices of Green Packet and Jobstreet are up about 600 % and 270 % respectively over the past two years.

There is also a perception is that there are very few successful MESDAQ companies and that most of the MESDAQ companies have not performed well in term of both financial results and share prices. Investors need to understand that MESDAQ was created for smaller companies to raise funds to expand their business and these companies generally do not have long-term business track record in a fast changing technology environment, therefore their business risks are higher. They are mostly in the fast growth stage– either they make it really big or not at all. Investors in these companies should be aware of these higher risks as they look for high return.
In summary, it is important to distinguish between speculating and investing. Quite a number of investors have made good money investing in Malaysian stocks. Many Malaysian stocks have performed extremely well. Which ones are these stocks? What makes these stocks successful? What can we learn from the success of these stocks?

Through the series of articles by CFA Malaysia over the next few weeks, it is hoped that investors like you will find that there are indeed investment opportunities in the Malaysian stock market.

Monday, June 4, 2007

3 Malaysians in Top 10 Asian progressives

Excerpts from an article ... (3 Malaysians in Top 10 Asian progressives - By MichaelBackman-WORLD BUSINESS May2007)

Who are the modernisers and reformers steering the region towards good business practice, transparency and management excellence?
'Other publications list Asia 's most influential, or its most powerful or richest, but World Business is more forward-looking than that. We have spotlighted the individuals driving Asia forward - those that are helping to bring about rules-based civil societies, or who are advancing the cause of better governance, be it in business or government'.
-WORLD BUSINESS-

1. HU JINTAO, CHINA
2. RAJA PETRA KAMARUDIN , MALAYSIAThough more robust than that of Singapore , Malaysia 's media is nonetheless tame. All significant media outlets are sympathetic to the government, there is little investigative journalism and discussion of many issues is discouraged. The newspapers focus endlessly on crime and lifestyle issues, and Malaysians tend to buy them for their job ads and to find out what's showing at the cinema. Increasingly, the serious reporting and commentary is done by bloggers, of which Raja Petra Kamarudin's www.malaysia-today.net is the best.Petra , a nephew of a former king of Malaysia , founded Malaysia-today in 2004 and works on it full time. The site now gets an astonishing 1.8 million hits on an average day, making it much more popular than any Malaysian newspaper. Malaysia-today plays an enormously important role in its attempts to keep the government accountable. It reports on ministers' many business interests, nepotism and just about anything else that the government would prefer to keep quiet. Petra uses the site to denounce money politics, corruption and Malaysia 's endless fascination with race and race-based politics. A popular, ongoing series is the Khairy Chronicles, which provides an account of the doings of the prime minister's young, unelected, but highly influential son-in-law.Many reports have been made against Petra to the police, agents from Malaysia 's Special Branch have questioned him on several occasions and his computers have been seized. Recently, he reported how the government intended to use a nominee company to borrow $50 billion, in order to avoid recording the loan as government borrowing. He has also reported on a particularly grisly murder that appeared to implicate senior government figures.
3. LOU JIWEI, CHINA
4. NARAYANA MURTHY, INDIA
5. NGUYEN TAN DUNG, VIETNAM
6. MUHAMMAD YUNUS, BANGLADESH

7. MAHATHIR MOHAMAD, MALAYSIAMahathir Mohamad, Malaysia 's prime minister from 1981 to 2003, was perhaps Asia 's most misunderstood leader. Mahathir had plenty of critics, but the country's impressive development under his stewardship is undeniable. Also undeniable is his popularity among Malaysia 's minority ethnic groups, particularly the Chinese, who comprise about 30% of the population. Mahathir managed to persuade different ethnic groups to think of themselves as Malaysians, despite economic and education policies that favoured the majority Malay population at the expense of the commercially successful Chinese minority.These policies helped to break the nexus between great wealth and (Chinese) ethnicity, thus making the Chinese less of a target politically in the event of unrest. Mahathir also kept a lid on Islamic fundamentalism, showing not just Malaysia but much of the Islamic world that economic progress and Islam can go hand in hand. Under Mahathir, the media and the judiciary lacked independence, but Malaysians enjoy far more political freedoms than the citizens of neighbouring Singapore .Mahathir resigned as prime minister while still popular and at a time of his choosing. In retirement, he has emerged as a loud critic of the new administration, bringing to Malaysia a level of public debate that few would have thought possible. His regular interventions on policy issues have almost given Malaysia the strong opposition voice that it has not previously had.He has attacked the government for not doing enough to tackle the widespread corruption, and has criticised the concessions given to foreign firms that invest in an economic zone in southern Malaysia . Even out of office, Mahathir continues to modernise his country.


8. LI KA SHING, HONG KONG
9. JAIME AUGUSTO ZOBEL DE AYALA , PHILIPPINES

10. SYED MOKHTAR AL -BUKHARY, MALAYSIASyed Mokhtar Al-Bukhary has built himself up from almost nothing to be one of Malaysia 's richest men. He has developed port facilities and an airport in southern Malaysia , as well as amassing interests in property, hotels, power stations, rubber plantations, banking, retailing and construction. His companies are run by professional managers throughout, rather than family members.He dislikes publicity and is remarkable by Malaysian corporate standards in not using his shareholders' money to buy a corporate jet, a helicopter or a fleet of Mercedes-Benz. He has no interest in personal aggrandisement. Instead, his great passion is his charitable foundation, the Al-Bukhary Foundation, into which he has poured millions to build mosques, schools and hospitals. The foundation has also built, stocked and runs the Islamic Art Museum in Kuala Lumpur, a world-class institution that puts Malaysia's National Museum to shame. A modern Muslim, he does not believe that women should cover their heads or faces and feels that Islam should return to what it was once known for: commerce and the arts.In late 2006, his MMC Corporation, together with a local partner, won an extraordinary $30 billion infrastructure deal in Saudi Arabia to develop a new industrial and commercial city. It's a huge undertaking for any company, let alone a Malaysian one, and it represents how Al-Bukhary likes to do business. He is a strong promoter of Muslim cross-border investment and trading ties, in the same way that other commercial ethnic groups trade across borders.Al-Bukhary is a breath of fresh air for corporate Malaysia and an inspiration to Muslims everywhere.